Monday, 29 August 2016

Winning vs Losing Tipsters

So what distinguishes winning from losing tipsters? Best way to distinguish good from poor tipsters is to look at the odds a player received when they made their bet and compare it with the market’s closing line. Consistently beating the closing odds at the sharpest online bookmakers such as; PinnacleSports, SBOBet or Matchbook can be a strong indicator of long-term betting profits. Beating the closing line doesn’t itself guarantee an individual bet will be profitable, but given that Pinnacle is one of the sharpest, consistently beating their closing line in the long run is the best indicator of winning tipster.

Why closing lines are so important? When a bookmaker opens a market for an upcoming game, the opening odds are calculated based on statistical analysis of the team’s past performances, factoring in any other relevant piece of information such as injuries, betting trends and public sentiments. Once the odds become available, the players bet on the markets they consider good value, causing the bookmakers to constantly adjust the odds in order to maintain a balanced book and avoid exposure on one side. The odds offered just before a game begins are called the closing line and reflect all statistics, news, wagering activities and market sentiment. The closing line should be the most efficient point of the market, and according to the efficient market hypothesis the closing odds are on average more accurate than the opening odds in predicting the probability of how a fixture will play out. 

Winning vs Losing Tipsters
Winning Tipsters
How to avoid bad and find good tipsters? Finding a good tipsters to follow can be hard, the most obvious point would be that they make a profit, but there are more tips to help. The first point for good tipster is to have their results verified by a independent third party service (such as blogabet), with accurate and easy to understand record of their full past performance. It might sound obvious, but you simply can’t just take a tipsters claims of profit. The best tipsters are often the longest-running, as they have proved themselves through good and bad times. ProPredictions tipsters have been around for couple of years so you can be confident of finding wise betting decisions. Finally, be careful with tipster that constantly changes its approach to tipping, especially after a bad run. When this happens it often screams out that he don’t really know where his head is. At ProPredictions our tipsters are betting only on top European football leagues and 99% of our tips are either Asian handicap or Under/Over bets. And now well give you advice how to avoid bad tipsters. Avoid social media such as facebook or twitter tipsters that claim of making tens of thousands of euros/dollars a month (often with picture proof). It’s all too easy to set up a new facebook page or twitter account, put up a bunch of tips and if they win, great, if they lose, just delete and open a new account. Avoid tipsters that claim to have "inside information" about tips guaranteed to win (sure or fixed tips). It’s the oldest trick in the book but the sad reality is that even if there is an element of people who do get inside info, they are never going to share it with a stranger, no matter how convincing they sound or how much they charge. And the last dubious practice we will share are the tipsters who continuously quote odds with bookies that no one will realistically match. There are many minor bookmakers that appear to offer attractive odds, but try to get more than €10 on at those odds and you will be disappointing. ProPredictions premium tips are proofed from a selection of best football bookmakers that we know players can trust. 

Parts of the text from: pinnacle articles, football-data.co.uk articles and betadvisor blog.

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